It is anticipated that both parties will endorse accords focused on the establishment of solar power facilities as well as enhanced trade collaboration across multiple industries.

The visit by India’s Prime Minister
Narendra Modi
to
Sri Lanka
is viewed as New Delhi taking further action to offset China’s growing impact and presence in the island country, with analysts pointing out a significant defense agreement set to be inked by the two neighboring nations from South Asia.

During Modi’s visit this weekend, New Delhi and Colombo aim to finalize crucial accords including the establishment of solar power facilities. This follows discussions initiated when Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake paid a visit earlier.
India
in December.

The two nations will enhance their commercial exchanges, concentrating on sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT, and they are expected to ink a defense agreement, as per reports from Indian media outlets.

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Experts indicated that the defense agreement was poised to mark one of the major advancements in ties between New Delhi and Colombo recently, as both nations were anticipated to enhance their military collaboration via collaborative sea monitoring, drills, and logistical assistance.

Modi will be the first foreign leader to receive Dissanayaka, who took the oath of office in September last year.

Michael Kugeman, who leads the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, noted that this visit occurred as both India and China are increasingly competing to strengthen their relationships with the countries along the coast of South Asia, such as Sri Lanka.

DissanayAKE is among the various recently emerged regional leaders seen as being more supportive of China compared to their predecessors. This presents an occasion for Modi to emphasize the significance of cooperation with Sri Lanka, while simultaneously seeking to leverage initiatives aimed at curbing China’s impact and presence in the area,” stated Kugelman.

While visiting Beijing in January, Dissanayake had an audience with President
Xi Jinping
China and Sri Lanka reached an agreement for increased investments and economic collaboration, which includes a $3.7 billion pact with Sinopec to establish an oil refinery in Hambantota.

Both parties signed fifteen cooperative documents, which included areas such as economic and technological advancement along with China’salignment.
Belt and Road Initiative
along with Sri Lanka’s plan for a digital economy by 2030.

Economic collaboration between India and Sri Lanka has proven to be an easy win for their partnership, with further advancements anticipated in this area,” Kugelman observed, highlighting how New Delhi offered substantial assistance to Colombo amid Sri Lanka’s 2022 financial crisis.

It is reported that India offered its neighbor an aid package worth approximately $4 billion. This assistance enabled Colombo to finance crucial imports and keep adequate foreign currency reserves, preventing them from defaulting on obligations to various lenders such as the International Monetary Fund.

Sriparna Pathak, who serves as an associate professor of Chinese studies and international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, stated that India aimed to establish itself as a security ally within the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). She highlighted that Sri Lanka’s crucial geographical position along with its expanding naval strength played pivotal roles in achieving this objective.

In 2015, Modi introduced the Security and Growth for All in the Region (Sagar) initiative, which emphasized a free, open, and secure Indian Ocean. This approach was starkly contrasted with China’s strategy of diplomatic engagement through debt-driven methods in the area, as she pointed out.

Pathak stated that India has assisted in combating piracy and offered humanitarian aid along with economic development to nations in the Indian Ocean Region, such as Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka has frequently been accused by critics of succumbing to what is known as a Chinese ‘debt trap.’ This occurs when the country accepts loans deemed unsustainable for various infrastructure initiatives, potentially enabling Beijing to take control of these assets during economic hardships.

Following a report highlighting the debt risks encountered by developing nations due to loans connected with the Belt and Road initiative, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated in 2023 that China has “never compelled anyone to take out loans or pressured any nation into accepting debts.”

At a routine press conference, she stated: “Our loan agreements come without any attached political conditions, and we do not pursue personal political gains.”

As the competition between the United States and China intensifies, Beijing might be prompted to make more significant moves into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In response, China may pursue additional trade agreements with Sri Lanka to counterbalance America’s rising tariffs, according to Pathak.

Regarding the defense agreement set to be signed between India and Sri Lanka, Pathak stated that the accord aims to protect the Indian Ocean Region from increasing rivalry and establish India as a dependable cornerstone in the area.

The accord was notable because it marked the first official defense agreement since the “controversial” dispatch of the Indian peacekeeping contingent to Sri Lanka, which lasted from 1987 to 1990.

Regarded as India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan civil conflict at that time, the forces were sent to oversee a truce and ensure the disarmament of Tamil militants.

The agreement signifies both sides’ readiness to close that particular chapter of history and focus on current security requirements rather than dwelling on past issues,” stated Pathak, who also noted that this accord will assist in countering China’s growing influence in the area.

Regarding Sri Lanka, the agreement presented an occasion to enhance its security strengths as it aimed for economic recuperation, she mentioned additionally.

Pathak mentioned that Beijing’s management of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port and the berthing of China’s suspected surveillance ship, Yuan Wang 5, in 2022 have intensified worries in New Delhi regarding potential encirclement and espionage activities by China close to India’s southwestern coastline.

In 2017, Sri Lanka declared that the poorly performing Hambantota port, constructed by China, would be leased for 99 years to a firm associated with the Chinese government.

The arrival and berthing of the Yuan Wang 5 at the Hambantota port were kept under wraps, with experts characterizing the ship as part of China’s most recent fleet of vessels designed for tracking space activities. These ships have the capability to observe satellite deployments, rocket liftoffs, and even launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Kugelman stated that the aftermath of the civil war had a significant impact on Sri Lanka, especially considering India’s backing of the Tamil guerrilla groups.

Between August 1983 and May 1987, India supplied weapons, conducted training sessions, and offered financial assistance to six Sri Lankan Tamil rebel organizations, which included the LTTE, also known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

“Mistrust arising from past events has hindered significant progress in defense collaboration. If finalized, this new framework agreement for defense cooperation could mark a pivotal moment in their bilateral relationship,” Kugelman stated.

Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, noted that the defense pact might compel Colombo into a “strategic partnership” with India.

“She noted that this makes it challenging for the Sri Lankan government to guarantee their Chinese partners that they will align with their strategic objectives,” adding that China seems to be pivoting away from big infrastructure investments towards more localized, community-focused projects in the country.

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The article initially appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), which is the premier source for news coverage of China and Asia.

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