Belarus is becoming an increasingly unstable player in Eastern Europe as the country falls further under Russia’s influence, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews in an interview, warning that the country could serve as a launchpad for military aggression against Ukraine and other Western neighbours.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed in Munich last month that Russia plans to station up to 150,000 troops in Belarus this year, potentially targeting NATO countries. With Belarus aligning ever more closely with Moscow, Tsikhanouskaya argued that the nation’s sovereignty is at risk, leaving both its future and the security of its neighbours uncertain.

For Tsikhanouskaya, sanctions remain a critical tool in deterring further Russian aggression. “It’s about changing our country, and sanctions are one of the most effective instruments,” she said. “I’m absolutely sure that only consistent policy can work with dictators. We insist that sanctions are instruments to influence dictators’ behaviour, and we can use this instrument. We can talk about softening sanctions for further steps of negotiation, because our final goal is to release all people and hold free and fair elections,” she told
The Europe Conversation.

Recent signs of growing integration between Russia and Belarus have raised alarms. Belarusian citizens can now participate in elections, but Tsikhanouskaya sees this as a step toward Belarus’s absorption by Russia. “It’s a creeping occupation and it is done with the allowance of Lukashenko, who is Putin’s puppet. Lukashenko is ready to sell our sovereignty, our independence, our country to Russia just to stay in power,” Tsikhanouskaya said.

She contended that the policy of Russification continues to progress relentlessly, with agreements being struck that overlook Belarus’s national interests. “Regardless of voter turnout, these events cannot be regarded as genuine elections. It is indeed quite alarming that Lukashenko, through his actions, is steering Belarus towards Russia,” Tsikhanouskaya stated.

While Tsikhanouskaya does not see the situation as one of physical annexation, like Ukraine’s, she believes it’s about maintaining a government loyal to Moscow. “They want a loyal government to have the appearance of an independent country, but with the government serving Putin, so at any moment they can use our land for further invasion—for the European Union, for example—or simply to promote propagandistic interests. This is what they want: a puppet regime in the country.”

Launchpad for an invasion

At the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy issued a stark warning that Russia might be preparing to use Belarus as a launchpad for an invasion, similar to the 2022 attack on Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya shared these concerns. “While Lukashenko is in power, Belarusian land can be used as a launching pad for an attack again on Ukraine or on our Western neighbours,” she said.

The likelihood of such an invasion stays uncertain. “This situation highlights that the democratic world struggles to clearly state whether they would tolerate oppression or permit invasions into sovereign nations. Additionally, they lack effective means to prevent it. There’s a possibility that these threats could reach the borders of the European Union.”

Tsikhanouskaya contended that autocrats comprehend only the vocabulary of strength, stating: “Should you fail to wield this authority, should you not demonstrate courage and audacity, these leaders will assert, ‘Very well, we shall trample over another demarcation.’”

Democratic aspirations remain intact

Tsikhanouskaya stayed optimistic about Belarus’ future, acknowledging that transformation could occur via multiple pathways. She stated, “Transformation in Belarus might unfold through several avenues, yet the crucial point is that democratic entities, our community, and Europe should be ready for such shifts.”

Even though the present situation may seem challenging, Tsikhanouskaya felt that Belarusians’ desire for democracy has not disappeared. She stated, “It’s important to keep in mind that those protesting on the streets are just one aspect of the opposition against the government. The appearance of tranquility within the nation does not imply surrender; instead, it indicates that citizens are strategizing and will be prepared when an opportunity for transformation arises.”

According to Tsikhanouskaya, there are greater opportunities for changing the government in Belarus compared to Russia.