The discussions between the center-right and center-left factions have concluded their initial phase as scheduled. Although reports indicate “significant advancement,” key areas like taxation and immigration continue to present challenges.

The leading three centrist parties in Germany unveiled the outcomes of their initial phase of discussions.
coalition talks
On the Monday after the federal election in February.

The victor of those elections—the conservative alliance consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU)—has been negotiating to establish a coalition government with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).

Although the sides managed to reach a consensus,
implement a significant historical debt restructuring and financing bill
In preliminary negotiations, significant obstacles seem to arise between the conservative party and the SPD, particularly regarding issues of migration.

How do things look for the German coalition talks?

The CDU leader and probable future Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that he aims to complete the negotiations by Easter, which is on April 20 this year.

The primary driver behind the urgency to establish an operational government stems from the uncertainties created by the new Trump administration in the U.S., along with worries about potential impacts on Germany’s struggling economy, which is already experiencing a downturn due to recession.

However, it still needs to be determined.
if all three sides can reach a consensus
That is sufficient for everyone involved in this time frame.

Merz faces pressure to deliver outcomes for his conservative supporters, particularly after facing criticism for his involvement with them.
reform the “debt brake”
while paving the way for significant growth in governmental expenditures following promises to oppose such actions.

He has similarly declined to create an alliance with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has strongly opposed immigration and might aim to attract CDU supporters if Merz fails to fulfill his promise of making significant changes to Germany’s migration policies.

Nevertheless, because Merz has excluded the possibility of leading a minority government, the SPD becomes the sole party he can partner with for a coalition. This situation puts the center-left in a stronger position during the talks.

All warnings to SPD against blocking asylum reforms

Regarding the discussions and one of their primary obstacles, CSU head and Bavarian State Minister Markus Söder tackled the topic of migration: “Restricting migration was a key pledge during the Union’s election campaign. A significant shift in direction is imminent: unlawful immigration needs to be curbed.”

Söder’s viewpoint was echoed by Boris Rhein, the prime minister of Hesse, who stated, “A political shift requires us to bring unauthorized immigration down to zero. Hence, we must implement border pushes and terminate family reunion policies.”

“The coming four years are crucial,” Rhein told Germany’s media.

Handelsblatt

Newspapers report, “The SPD understands this. It’s crucial for us to demonstrate that the political center can address issues effectively.” Rhein echoed these sentiments expressed within the Union, urging the SPD not to exaggerate their position. He pointed out that the Social Democrats secured merely 16.4% of the votes.

Warnings also came from inside the SPD, with ex-leader Sigmar Gabriel urging his party not to obstruct the conservatives’ proposals for revising migration and asylum policies.

Gabriel stated that blocking new policies would be a significant error, and he further noted that the SPD’s “naive immigration strategies led many of their supporters to flock to the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland).”

CDU leader Merz states: ‘confidence is increasing’

Although considerable attention has been devoted to the disagreements between the CDU/CSU and SPD regarding the formation of a new government, CDU head Friedrich Merz stated on Monday that the more significant development is the advancement being achieved.

The ambiance keeps getting better, and trust is increasing. It’s essential that we learn to rely on each other.” He added that he wouldn’t yield to demands for accelerating the process, stating confidently, “I’m quite sure we will achieve this.

Stage one finished, moving on to the details next; uncertain whether the government will support this by Easter.

As the exploratory discussions concluded on Monday, participants indicated that several issues remained unresolved, requiring a follow-up stage to address and refine the discrepancies in details.

CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann stated that the coming weeks would be crucial, but he reaffirmed the CDU/CSU stance that merely persisting with previous approaches wasn’t viable, adding “That remains our position.”

The SPD leader Lars Klingbeil stated that it is “perfectly usual” to observe some disagreements among political parties. However, he highlighted the advancements by noting, “It’s not about who emerges victorious or claims which prizes. Instead, it’s about the collective duty we bear towards our nation.”

Overall, 16 task forces took part in the initial stage of talks. Next, political leaders along with their respective teams aim to tackle issues where agreement was not achieved earlier.

The schedule for phase two of the discussions will be shared by midweek. Up until now, the topics requiring the most attention seem to revolve around taxation policies, social welfare strategies, and addressing unlawful immigration.

Klingbeil stated that he was unable to confirm whether a new administration would be established by Easter, as initially proposed by Merz.

Edited by: Jenipher Camino Gonzalez

Author: Alex Berry, Jon Shelton (incorporating German media)