Former president Duterte is now imprisoned in The Hague, while his daughter battles to maintain her political standing. However, don’t rule out a potential return in the 2028 elections.
Rodrigo Duterte
once ruled
the Philippines
With an iron grip, his aggressive drug war has resulted in numerous fatalities, yet his support remains steadfast. Now, the ex-president is detained in a cell at The Hague, facing charges of crimes against humanity.
For President
Ferdinand Marcos Jnr
Duterte’s demise represents a victory as well as a risk. He helped facilitate his predecessor’s detention by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
earlier this month
According to experts, Marcos Jr. has delivered a significant setback to the Duterte family.
However, this action has only added more fuel to the ongoing conflict between two of the nation’s most influential political families, each with longstanding accusations of corruption and human-rights violations hanging over them.
Many people questioned whether Marcos would actually go after his opponents, asserting that he did not possess the necessary political determination and was overly wary of conflict, as stated by Earl Parreno, who authored the piece.
Beyond Will and Power
, a 2019 biography of Duterte. “However, it transpired that he was capable of doing it, and he has handled the responses effectively so far.”
On March 11, Duterte’s arrest paved the way for increased political pressure on him and those close to him. The ICC plans to freeze his assets within the Philippines, with additional warrants likely targeting supporters such as Senator Ronald dela Rosa and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who happens to be the ex-president’s offspring.
Duterte-Carpio, who is
facing impeachment
She accuses the Marcos administration of arresting her father for political advantage and has charged them with this wrongdoing while being at home.
The conflict between the two families, who were hesitant partners during the 2022 elections, has now escalated into outright combat.
Marcos has utilized the presidency to strengthen his authority. He holds sway over the police, the military, and the lower house of Congress, where a panel looking into disinformation and Chinese influence operations has been methodically breaking down the Dutertes’ infamous social media troll operation.
Marcos is likewise a strong supporter of the United States, a nation that has been involved in past shifts of leadership in the Philippines—having implicitly backed the removal of his father from power in 1986 and ex-president Joseph Estrada in 2001.
As the May midterm elections approach, Marcos’ team is well-positioned for dominance. According to recent polls, candidates supported by his administration might win up to nine out of the 12 senatorial positions being contested—significantly influencing the vice president’s impeachment trial since senators will be key in deciding its result.
A dynasty in disarray?
President Duterte’s sons, Congressman Paolo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian, continue their political careers yet are perceived as minor players. Despite facing potential international extradition, their father has indicated he might run once more for the position of mayor in Davao.
Meanwhile, Vice President Duterte-Carpio remains a possible candidate for the presidency in 2028. However, she is facing accusations of misappropriating over 112.5 million pesos (approximately US$1.95 million) from secret funds when she was serving as the education secretary. Should she be found guilty, she could face lifelong imprisonment along with being prohibited from participating in future elections.
Her departure from office might also stem from the upcoming Senate trial, following her impeachment by the House.
in February
for allegations such as bribery and embezzlement
plotting to assassinate
the president.
Senate President Francis Escudero has provisionally set the trial for late July; however, critics contend that this delays the constitutionally mandated speedy process.
Duterte-Carpio seems aware of the long odds against her. She reportedly told her supporters to “cease having hope since her father won’t be returning,” as stated by seasoned political consultant Ronald Llamas.
“I’m not suggesting they’re done for, but this is a crucial juncture for them. They’ve stopped pursuing an aggressive strategy,” said Llamas, a previous advisor to the president on political matters and head of the Galahad Consulting Agency, during an interview with This Week in Asia.
The majority of Duterte’s allies and those who seek to wield power are now under attack,” he stated. “Their position has become precarious, perhaps even critical.
Nevertheless, some caution against writing off the family just yet. Parreno stated, “It would be premature to declare it’s all over,” noting that the clan might mobilize their supporters in response to Duterte’s ICC indictment, attempting to portray it as an act of political harassment.
Nuelle Duterte, a psychiatrist and distant relative of the ex-president, revealed to This Week in Asia that her family remains unresolved and would definitely try to retaliate.
“Filipinos have a soft spot for the underdog – theصند
inaapi
She predicted that the clan would stick to their typical strategy, which involves appealing to people’s emotions, portraying themselves as victims, and depicting the Marcoses as malevolent but inept.
Fractured alliances
The partnership between the Marcoses and Dutertes has been one of mutual benefit from the start. During the 2022 election campaign, Marcos teamed up with Duterte-Carpio under the banner of the “Uniteam,” merging the strong support for the Marcos family in Northern Luzon with the robust backing for the Duterte clan in the southern region of Mindanao. This approach proved successful, leading them to dominate the electoral landscape. However, their coalition rested on uncertain foundations.
“There wasn’t truly any foundation for cohesion,” Llamas stated. “No shared agenda, no clear objective, no guiding values… Friendship was non-existent as well, making failure inevitable.” Issues started surfacing right away. Duterte-Carpio’s bid for the role of defense secretary was rejected, her funding was reduced, and inquiries regarding corruption within her department quickly accumulated.
The conflict intensified last year when Duterte-Carpio openly mused about
beheading Marcos
and, in a late-night video, claimed to have hired an assassin to kill him and his allies. When Duterte supporters staged a protest in November calling for Marcos’ resignation, the effort fizzled out. By March, Marcos had made his move, delivering Duterte to The Hague and setting the stage for an all-out political war.
For Marcos, the top priority is straightforward: achieve a robust performance in the midterm elections and witness Duterte-Carpio’s conviction. The polls scheduled for May offer the Duterte faction a chance to reclaim influence within the Senate. If Marcos solidifies his control, it will facilitate a smoother progression of the impeachment proceedings against his vice president. However, this strategic move comes with potential hazards.
“If you don’t allow her an opportunity to campaign in 2028, her followers could resort to violence,” Parreno cautioned.
Her father’s
enduring popularity
Among foreign-based Filipinos and within his native region of Mindanao, he still holds significant influence as an unpredictable factor. Following the former president’s detention, his followers have organized demonstrations and gatherings to show their backing for him, even going so far as to protest in The Hague itself.
They have similarly advocated for a “zero remittance week,” encouraging other overseas workers to avoid sending any funds to their families in the Philippines as part of an effort to urge the government to work towards securing Duterte’s release from custody.
Duterte was the sole Philippine president to record an approval rating exceeding 91 percent, yet this backing might be waning. Latest surveys indicate that almost half of those polled in Mindanao now endorse the ICC accusations.
Nevertheless, Marcos needs to proceed with caution. “This is a perilous lineage,” stated political commentator and seasoned reporter Vergel Santos.
The race to 2028
The competition between the Marcos family and the Dutertes stems from their mutual desire to control Philippine politics. In 2016, Duterte won the presidential election by presenting himself as an outspoken reformer committed to tackling crime, corruption, and longstanding economic problems swiftly. However, his aggressive anti-drug campaign resulted in numerous fatalities, leading human rights organizations to suggest that up to 30,000 people may have died due to these actions—incidents considered key elements of the crimes against humanity charges filed with the ICC.
Meanwhile, the Marcoses have been working for years to restore their family’s reputation following the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., an era characterized by severe human rights violations, economic downturns, and massive theft. In 2022, their collaboration with the Dutertes was largely viewed as a tactical union, with many analysts expecting Duterte-Carpio to follow Marcos Jr. into the presidency in 2028.
However, those delicate connections have now been broken. Investigative journalist Jarius Bondoc stated, “They never got along with each other.”
“Bondoc stated that Duterte erred by using offensive language and alleging that Marcos was addicted to cocaine, denouncing him as an ineffectual idiot,” referencing the remarks the former president made during his campaign appearances.
in 2021
.
He was unable to hold back, unable to reign in his oversized tongue. Should your arrogance reach such heights, you’ll inevitably end up irritating everyone around you.
Given that a confirmation of charges hearing has been scheduled for September, there remains a slight possibility that Duterte might obtain his freedom from ICC custody if his attorneys can convincingly claim that his apprehension was unlawful—though legal professionals are skeptical about the success of such an argument.
The possibility of the 80-year-old ex-president dying while in ICC custody introduces an additional element of unpredictability. According to Parreno, should he pass away behind bars now, “he would be forgotten.” Conversely, if this occurs nearer to the 2028 election, “Sara would emerge victorious.”
Currently, the Marcos administration has the advantage, yet analysts caution that the struggle isn’t near completion even if Duterte-Carpio faces impeachment. As Santos stated, “The fight ends for the Dutertes only when I witness Sara’s inability to contest in 2028.”
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