By Kestér Kenn KLOMEGÂH
In many African nations, an increasing variety of economic prospects are emerging mainly because of shifting global political trends. These transformations are clearly affecting Africa’s developmental environment. Although there are certain drawbacks, they also offer a special opportunity to evaluate options and make wise decisions regarding economic growth.
Drawing directly from recent global political developments, top-level policy specialists have recommended that Russia align its approach toward Africa with the nation’s broader international strategy, considering the region’s workforce and abundant natural assets.
Titled “Situation Analytical Report,” this document was created by 25 policy specialists under a program supported by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The report was led by Sergei A. Karaganov, who serves as Dean and Academic Director at the Faculty of World Economy and International Relations within the National Research University’s Higher School of Economics (HSE University). Additionally, Karaganov holds the position of Honorary Chairperson of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies.
Home to approximately 1.4 billion people, Africa represents a promising marketplace for various consumer products and services. Over the next few decades, there is likely to be intensified rivalry among foreign entities seeking control over resources and economic sway in Africa.
Although external actors have increased their impact and visibility across Africa, according to the report, Russia needs to enhance and reshape its approach since it has moved into the fifth phase. Russia’s strategy toward Africa is generally split into four phases, which occurred following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.
The historical meetings laid a solid foundation for initiating or marking the beginning of a new fifth phase in Russian-African relations. The joint statement approved during these gatherings elevated Africa’s position within Russia’s foreign policy priorities to an unprecedented level and continues to serve as the primary document shaping the theoretical structure of collaboration between Russia and Africa.
Several individuals involved in the situational analysis, who helped draft the most recent policy paper, expressed strong criticism about Russia’s present approach toward Africa, asserting that there is neither a coherent strategy nor uniformity in how policies are carried out. The increase in diplomatic interactions seems primarily aimed at being visible rather than substantive. Russia’s international relations plan concerning Africa should clearly outline and integrate the developmental requirements of African nations.
Although the quantity of top-tier meetings has risen, the proportion of meaningful topics discussed on the operational agenda continues to be limited. These regular gatherings have yielded minimal concrete outcomes. In addition to the lack of an official plan for the region, there is also a scarcity of skilled staff, as well as poor collaboration between different governmental and non-governmental organizations involved in African affairs.
Russian-African Lobbying
The document highlights inadequate and chaotic Russian-African advocacy efforts, along with poor “information hygiene” across all tiers of public communication as key shortcomings in Russia’s present approach toward Africa. In this situation, Russia should consolidate its different concepts for collaboration with Africa into one unified and openly accessible strategy to gain greater achievements in relation to Africa.
In various respects, concepts and plans are frequently mistaken for actual outcomes, with initiatives not officially approved being presented as underway. Russia’s capabilities are consistently exaggerated, both openly and in private discussions. From a straightforward perspective, Russia is significantly struggling to fulfill its contract deadlines. Currently, numerous agreements were concluded during the recent Russia-Africa summits. However, Russia has proven incapable of delivering what was pledged to African nations.
Participants in the situational analysis stated that the absence of thorough due diligence processes and appropriate checks on business partners represents one of the main difficulties faced by Russian companies operating in Africa. Numerous projects declared at the highest governmental levels remain unrealized. Typically, this occurs because these projects lacked sufficient preparation prior to formal authorization. Consequently, financial resources are frequently allocated to underdeveloped and inadequately planned proposals, according to an analytical study compiled by Russian specialists.
Russia’s release of an official policy paper regarding collaboration with Africa will highlight the sincerity of its goals and foster a climate of confidence, where specific actions gain more significance and stronger validation. Within the African context, this signifies faster alignment of key decision-making processes. It should be noted that these publicly stated approaches across the whole continent serve as crucial tools for other nations engaged in Africa.
In contrast to many rivals, Russia has the capacity to advocate for a more transparent, straightforward, and comprehensible policy towards Africa—focusing on sovereignty, regional unity, infrastructural growth, human advancement (such as education and healthcare), safety (covering efforts against food shortages and diseases), standard global human principles, and the belief that individuals deserve respect and protection. All attendees at the situational assessment concurred with this perspective. The key benefit of this approach is that it could resonate more deeply with African interests compared to the agendas of its counterparts.
Russia-Africa Summits
Through collaboration with African allies, the approach involves implementing an Action Plan—an operational document developed through meaningful cooperation between summits. One of the key priorities crucial for the success of Russia’s activities in Africa is consolidating and enhancing the role and capabilities of Russian governmental bodies focused on African affairs, particularly within the informational domain.
The study suggests that interactions among non-governmental groups, such as specialists and educational institutions, should be strengthened. When swift growth in commerce and financial ties faces challenges—such as when an economy is stagnant or experiencing turmoil—the humanistic approach may serve as another method for strengthening connections.
Regarding foreign athletes in Africa, the report highlights China as the leading active participant. India’s impact keeps increasing, along with the engagement of Turkey, the UAE, and Qatar, which are newer participants in Africa. The presence and influence of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil over the next few years are expected to stay similar to what they were during the last ten years, but may decrease relative to China’s, according to the report’s assessment.
Several nations including China, the European Union, Germany, Turkey, and Spain have created, declared, and are gradually executing their respective African strategies. Generally speaking, among all G7 countries, only Germany retains some capacity to enhance its influence and footprint in Africa. According to the authors, Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom may manage to keep their influence stable, although this is also expected to decline relative to emerging global powers.
Meanwhile, from its perspective, Africa will continue to hold significance for Europe over the long term and could potentially become an increasingly vital supplier of various resources. Europe requires mineral resources—such as cobalt, gas, bauxite, and rare earth elements—to support the shift toward cleaner energy, along with human resources to offset declining population numbers. Traditionally, the European banking sector and financial bodies depend on Africa as a source of financing; however, African funds frequently look elsewhere for safety, and political instability tends to speed up this movement.
The impact of various non-European rising nations, many of whom engage in competitive dynamics, is increasingly evident across Africa. The United Arab Emirates and Turkey can serve as examples. This competition is noticeable throughout North Africa, West Africa, and particularly in the Red Sea region, involving struggles for dominance over maritime facilities and potential military bases. An illustrative case of such conflict is Somalia, where Turkey is engaging and reinforcing its stance in Mogadishu, whereas the UAE, having previously relinquished authority over the port in Djibouti, is now establishing itself in Berbera (within the de facto Republic of Somaliland).
Signs suggest that Israel, which has consistently maintained significant activities across numerous African nations—particularly in Eastern Africa—is likely to expand its presence in the near and mid-term future. This includes sectors deemed “sensitive,” like internal security, the instruction of police and elite units, along with economic initiatives, notably those focused on agricultural development.
Expanding Presence in Africa
Israel is making strides to sustain and grow its footprint across Africa, building connections with the UAE and consequently with several Gulf nations. Africa serves as one of the key arenas for Israel’s engagement with these states. It aims to keep working towards diminishing Iran’s growing impact in the region, which has been actively involved in various activities aimed at increasing its reach throughout Africa.
Over the coming decade, competition, shifts in power dynamics, and conflicting interests within the Indian Ocean region are expected to play a crucial role in terms of military and strategic significance, as this area is where the objectives of nations such as China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab states, Iran, along with the U.S., France, and others may come into conflict.
Several nations will allocate substantial resources to enhance their presence throughout the eastern coastline of Africa, stretching from Egypt to South Africa, presenting both challenges and fresh prospects for regional countries. The military and strategic significance of the Indian Ocean islands—comprising four African island nations—is expected to increase further.
The document suggests exploring various methods and structures for bilateral and multinational partnerships involving relevant stakeholders, whose priorities in Africa could align with those of Russia. For instance, the opportunities for direct collaboration between Russia and India in Africa (beyond BRICS) remain underutilized. Cooperative efforts in fields such as global development aid, education, healthcare, and infrastructure funding might also hold appeal.
It is also recommended to investigate, even at an advanced stage, the potential for collaboration with nations like South Korea (which has a significant presence in Africa), Vietnam (demonstrating increasing enthusiasm), Cuba, Serbia, and others within Russia’s efforts across the African continent.
If Africa were absent, Russia wouldn’t possess such a wide array of allied nations aligned with its vision for establishing an equitable multipolar world system. In every respect, Africa appears to serve as a beneficial area where Russia can position itself as a major global power and a nation committed to maintaining peace, respecting state sovereignty, allowing nations to determine their own paths of development, and safeguarding natural resources and the environment. Thus, Russia’s growing involvement and authority across Africa will neither provoke nor has provoked opposition from African nations.
It is equally crucial to shift away from the “zero-sum” mindset in interactions with the Western world, despite appearances suggesting that the goals and ambitions of the EU and the U.S. in Africa contrast with those of Russia.
Russia must shape its policies and statements concerning Africa independently from its conflicts with the Western world, ensuring that its actions on the continent do not appear motivated by an intent to undermine American and European influence.
Observing and Ensuring Guidelines
Participants in the situational analysis concluded that Russia’s approach toward Africa should align with its broader foreign policy aims, focusing on three main areas:
a
) Safeguarding national security. Within the African context, this mainly refers to the threat posed by emerging viruses, extremist activities, and any factors that could affect Russia’s national security, such as rivalry with other global powers.
b
) Promoting the socio-economic growth of Russia. Africa presents an attractive opportunity for Russian goods and services, serving as a driver for the diversification and advancement of the Russian economy.
Participants in the situational analysis concurred that this remains the key issue at present. In the future, Africa has the potential to emerge as a significant contributor to the growth of certain Russian non-resources industries, notably rail and agricultural machinery, automobile and tracked vehicle production, along with service sectors such as education and healthcare.
c
) Enhancing the standing of the Russian Federation as a key influence in today’s global landscape. A political alliance with African nations and the African Union, viewed as cooperative partners, could significantly support this endeavor. According to United Nations voting records, the stances of Russia and numerous African states align closely or share similarities on various matters. No African country has enacted sanctions or limitations against Russia.
Based on clear signals, Russia is consistently shaping and reshaping its own route toward Africa. However, the ideological foundation for collaboration at this stage can come from conceptual papers and ideas accepted and endorsed by all African nations: the approach of ”
Solutions from Africa for African Issues
must be strictly adhered to, operating under the guidelines of the African Union Agenda 2063 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
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