President Mnangagwa is looking past his second term, which has led to war veterans supporting Vice President Chiwenga threatening a potential ‘insurrection’ on March 31st.
Tensions are escalating in Zimbabwe over
President Emmerson Mnangagwa
It is clear that he aims to stay in power beyond his second term, which concludes in 2028. According to Zimbabwe’s constitution, presidents are not allowed to serve more than two terms. However, there are concerns that Mr. Mnangagwa might find a way to bypass this restriction.
This is fueling criticism not only from the political opposition and civil society groups but also within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party itself. Notably, Vice President Constantine Chiwenga opposes this initiative strongly. He had anticipated receiving the mantle of leadership—supposedly guaranteed by Mr. Mnangagwa—as both men orchestrated the ousting of former president Robert Mugabe in November 2017 through a military coup.
Amidst the growing number of critics demanding Mr. Mnangagwa’s departure, a significant group of war veterans—a crucial part of the ZANU-PF leadership—align themselves with Mr. Chiwenga. Headed by Blessed ‘Bombshell’ Geza, this group intends to orchestrate an ‘insurrection’ against him on March 31. Previously a Member of Parliament and a member of ZANU-PF’s Central Committee, Geza was ousted due to his role in fostering division within the party.
Geza has gone into seclusion, and the authorities are intensifying their efforts against individuals who relay his communications. An AMH news reporter named Blessed Mhlanga has been affected by this crackdown.
arrested
Following the airing of Geza’s interviews on AMH’s Heart and Soul television program, he was refused bail on two occasions. Some individuals have chosen to go into hiding as a result.
This crackdown has faced extensive criticism both within and outside of Zimbabwe. Idriss Nassah, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch focusing on Africa,
demanded
The swift release and removal of charges against Mhlanga highlighted that “freedom of expression and the press rights are severely compromised in Zimbabwe.”
The unrest traces back to August 2024 when ZANU-PF held its National Congress.
passed
Resolution 1 states that Mr. Mnangagwa’s tenure as both the leader of the party and President of Zimbabwe should be extended from 2028 to 2030, with an accompanying call for amendments to the nation’s constitution to reflect this change.
Mr. Mnangagwa claims he adheres to the constitution and promises to resign in 2028. However, many doubt his word since he hasn’t repealed Resolution 1. Additionally, relinquishing power would require him to forsake the immense riches he and his associates within ZANU-PF have amassed through corruption over the years.
This might be the main complaint his adversaries have.
broadcast
From an obscure spot on Wednesday, Geza posted a list of purported associates of Mr. Mnangagwa’s businesses, claiming they had profited from dubious government contracts.
However, it’s uncertain how President Mnangagwa could stay in office within the bounds of the constitution. A high-ranking opposition figure, who wishes to remain unnamed but was involved in drafting the constitution, informed ISS Today about three provisions in place that prohibit anyone from serving a third term. According to these rules:
1) No individual may hold office for more than two terms.
2) Any changes to the constitution must be approved via a nationwide referendum.
3) Incumbent leaders cannot gain advantages from alterations made to the constitution.
Thus, the legal hurdles for Mr. Mnangagwa pursuing a third term are significant, he pointed out. Additionally, the political barriers are substantial—particularly because the required referendum might end up being seen as a judgment on his leadership. Given the widespread dissatisfaction with him, winning such a vote could prove very challenging.
The opposing leader assumed that Mugabe’s approach would merely involve prolonging his tenure along with that of the present parliamentary members. Achieving this would necessitate changes to the constitution; however, he surmised that Mr. Mugabe’s group felt confident about pushing through an amendment without needing a referendum.
Assessing the seriousness of these developments is challenging, particularly regarding potential uprisings slated for 31 March and their possible impact on ousting President Mnangagwa.
The military, led by Mr. Chiwenga at that time, ousted Mr. Mugabe in 2017, which has fueled widespread speculations regarding its political affiliations. As reported by Daily Maverick lately, these suspicions have been particularly prevalent.
quoted
Unidentified military officials report that Mr. Chiwenga continues to hold significant backing within the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. Nonetheless, Mr. Mnangagwa remains loyal to Defence Force Commander General Philip Sibanda.
The Director of Zimbabwe’s
SAPES
Trust, Ibbo Mandaza, informed ISS Today: “I’m not sure if this qualifies as a looming coup, but everything suggests that the core is no longer sustainable.”
Brian Raftopoulos, who specializes in Zimbabwe and democracy at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, thinks there is a significant risk of unrest. According to him, General Chiwenga’s frustration over President Mnangagwa’s unfulfilled pledge to resign in 2028 is causing rifts within ZANU-PF, the military, and the security sector. However, he does not anticipate the same level of widespread public backing as seen during the events of 2017.
David Moore, a former professor of development studies from the University of Johannesburg, concurs. “I’d be astonished if many individuals took part,” he says. He questions whether the primary opposition group—the significantly diminished Citizens Coalition for Change—would participate, since doing so might indicate that they have abandoned efforts to mobilize large crowds. Instead, aligning themselves with a segment of the governing party and the military could potentially confirm suspicions held by certain analysts about their motives.
Mr Raftopoulos added that civil society is also weak. He said that even if there were violent protests within ZANU-PF, “Mnangagwa is going to keep this under control.” For example, he noted how Mr Mnangagwa shifted Zimbabwe National Army Lieutenant General Anselem Sanyatwe (believed to be a Chiwenga supporter) to Minister of Sport, Recreation and Culture – perceived as a huge demotion.
He will keep relocating individuals he deems untrustworthy. His long-term strategy involves either limiting Chiwenga’s influence as much as feasible or expelling him entirely and isolating him.” This could lead to disruptions and instability, potentially resulting in an effort to remove Mr. Mnangagwa from power. However, I am skeptical that this would escalate into a comprehensive coup attempt.
Mr. Raftopoulos thinks that both local and international political trends might support Mr. Mnangagwa if he decides to suppress demonstrations. “With the increasing influence of right-wing movements globally, authoritarian leaders such as Mnangagwa have gained more legitimacy. Consequently, he could argue to the Western powers, particularly…the Trump administration, ‘Who are they to lecture us about democracy?'”
He stated that Zimbabwe had also been removed from the European Union’s monitoring list, so “[Mnangagwa] doesn’t have to be concerned about any repercussions from the North if he resorts to violence.”
And the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where Mr. Mnangagwa currently holds the chairmanship, is too engrossed in other matters such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo to take action, according to Mr. Raftopoulos. Additionally, Mr. Mnangagwa may be considering that neither
SADC
Neither the African Union acted following the November 2017 ousting, despite their regulations requiring the suspension of member states post-coup.
You wouldn’t want a military takeover in Zimbabwe, particularly if it merely swaps out one predatory ZANU-PF group for a different one. Yet, you also wouldn’t hope to witness Mr. Mnangagwa quashing demonstrations as the global community watches indifferently. Intervention from neighboring countries ought to occur.
Peter Fabricius, Consultant at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria
(This article was
first published
By ISS Today, which is aPremium Times syndication partner. We’ve received authorization from them to repost this content.
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