As Trump’s Uncertainty Looms, Is This the ‘Perfect Time’ for China to Gain Allies in Southeast Asia?

TEDDIE

4 months ago

It’s now up to Beijing to demonstrate ‘geopolitical generosity’ when dealing with sensitive matters such as the South China Sea, according to a global affairs specialist from Malaysia.

Beijing can take advantage of the doubt arising from Washington to attract Southeast Asia by demonstrating “great geopolitical generosity” on challenging topics including the
South China Sea
, according to a Malaysian international affairs expert.

Mohd Faiz Abdullah, who chairs the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia—a think tank that provides advice to the Malaysian government—stated that if Southeast Asia faces “damaging” trade policies from the United States, the region might be compelled to rely more heavily on China.

Following his comeback to the White House, the US President has taken various actions.
Donald Trump
These policies, which include tariffs, have introduced considerable uncertainty and appear to be breaking down the rules-based international order. In contrast, China has been trying to position itself as a stabilizing influence and a reliable major player on the world stage.

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Mohd Faiz notes that under the Trump administration, there was a move away from multipolarity, which he believes presented an ideal opportunity for Beijing to strengthen relationships with nations in its region.

“If you ask my opinion, now is the moment when China needs to significantly step up its efforts and demonstrate greater self-restraint and increased sensitivity regarding geopolitical issues—such as those concerning the South China Sea,” he stated during an interview on Wednesday at the margins of the event.
Boao Forum for Asia
in China’s Hainan province.

“He stated that China needs to appear far more cooperative with ASEAN countries and should actually surpass geo-economic strategies,” he said, referring to the situation.
ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
That could definitely gain supporters who might still be undecided.

China has solidified its role as the leading trade ally for the area, yet it shares longstanding disagreements with multiple nations—particularly intense ones with the Philippines—concerning competing assertions in the South China Sea. Beijing asserts nearly full ownership over this crucial maritime zone.

Mohd Faiz, who is also the founding dean of the Selangor Business School, stated that this was an opportune moment for China to adopt “a highly inclusive approach and focus on giving rather than taking,” emphasizing that Beijing needs to acknowledge the strategic significance of ASEAN.

“China might seize the opportunity when conditions are favorable… Trump is giving them an excellent chance here,” he stated.

Trump’s unconventional take on foreign policy, including his views on alliances, has contributed to a nervousness in Southeast Asia over how his administration will approach the region. It has also raised the question of whether, in the case of an intensified US-China competition, Trump would put pressure on countries that have closer ties with Beijing.

Most Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have deep ties with both Washington and Beijing, and have made clear that they do not want to be forced to choose a side in the superpower rivalry.

Malaysian Prime Minister
Anwar Ibrahim
has visited China three times since he took office in 2022, and the two countries notched up a record-breaking bilateral trade volume last year, suggesting relations were “at the highest point”, according to Mohd Faiz.

At the same time, Malaysia has deep economic ties with Washington and “there’s no reason why we should be going away from the US and there’s no reason why we should be apologetic about hamming it up with China”, he added.

In the event the Trump administration forces Malaysia to take sides – such as by reducing its trade with China – Mohd Faiz suggested that it would boil down to the concessions Washington was willing to make. But even so, such a bargain would work “only to a point”.

“We must not appear to be making extraordinary efforts merely to follow America’s lead. This approach will be viewed as solely pragmatic and driven by economic necessity,” he stated.

Although Malaysia hasn’t experienced similar pressure from Trump so far, Mohd Faiz noted that the “threat of tariffs looms,” adding that this issue has been addressed among key departments within the Malaysian administration.

He emphasized that the 10-member ASEAN should collectively present a unified stance amid uncertainties arising from Washington’s actions. He cautioned that “if pressured severely and forced into a tight spot by the United States, we might be compelled to rely more heavily on China” – although he didn’t foresee this situation developing rapidly.

“The apprehension felt by Malaysia and ASEAN will likely mirror the concerns of the global community regarding the Trump administration — the anxiety caused by this unpredictability,” he stated.

Here we face a scenario where everything is rather unclear, including the specifics of Trump’s foreign policy approach.

As Malaysia assumes the role of ASEAN chairman this year, Mohd Faiz stated that the increased tensions in the South China Sea will be a key focus. He mentioned that Malaysia aims to “make progress” toward developing a “general consensus” on the issue.
code of conduct
for the waterway.

Although officials have committed to finalizing the code of conduct negotiations by 2026, progress remains sluggish. Analysts point out that disagreements among the involved parties—including whether the document should be legally binding—are contributing factors.

Moehd Faiz stated that expecting the talks to conclude by the end of this year would be overly simplistic due to their multifaceted nature. However, he mentioned that demonstrating ongoing advancement would indicate a genuine effort towards resolving the matter.

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