By: Professor Douglas BOATENG
In today’s global political scene, conflict does not typically involve the roar of gunshots or rows of uniformed troops. Rather, it unfolds via updates on trade and announcements of tariffs.
Economic conflicts are reshaping global relations, interrupting supply networks, and putting lives at risk, especially for emerging economies aiming to enter worldwide marketplaces.
This trend is not fleeting; the present surge in tariffs indicates a lasting and deliberate shift. The international trade framework is experiencing a basic restructuring.
The supply chains that were developed over several decades are now undergoing changes. Experts estimate that this shift could take around five to seven years to stabilize, depending on whether global political circumstances remain consistent.
After dedicating years to efforts aimed at industrialization, manufacturing systems, and economic growth, I recognize and comprehend this intricacy. Moving a factory is fundamentally different from relocating an office space.
Stable governance, competent workforce, synchronized logistics, and favorable infrastructure are essential requirements. Simplifying this process goes beyond naivety; it constitutes a significant strategic mistake.
An expensive shift towards nationalism
The trend toward trade nationalism is growing stronger. The United States, which was once a cornerstone of international trade, has changed course significantly. By April 2025, it had introduced a minimum import tariff of 10 percent across the board. Nonetheless, certain countries—such as major economic players in Africa—are encountering even higher tariffs.
For example, South Africa’s exports now face a 30 percent tariff, which essentially eliminates the duty-free benefits they previously enjoyed under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
In 2024, South African exports to the United States exceeded $14 billion, encompassing products such as vehicles, agricultural items, textile goods, and wine. These new duties impose significant financial burdens on both exporting companies and American buyers. Frequently, everyday purchasers end up bearing this burden unnoticed.
Inflation, this covert levy, gradually erodes household finances as corporate executives discuss strategies. Each duty comes with a cost, yet it is the average citizen who bears the burden without realizing it.
The automotive industry: a thriving narrative at risk
In 2024, South Africa’s vehicle exports to the United States surpassed $2 billion. These goods benefited from duty-free status under AGOA. However, the recent imposition of a 25 percent tariff on imported vehicles has quickly eliminated this advantage.
Despite South Africa accounting for less than 1 percent of U.S. auto imports, it still encounters penalties akin to those faced by major international players.
Industry leaders caution that this shift could endanger tens of thousands of jobs and imperil investments linked to U.S. demand. Punishing the hardworking for offenses they didn’t commit won’t bode well for maintaining high standards of excellence.
South African authorities are currently interacting closely with their American peers in an effort to reverse or lessen the impact. However, based on current circumstances, the industry is looking at a challenging fight ahead.
Apparel and fabrics: delicate fibers coming apart
Textile exports from countries like Lesotho, Madagascar, Kenya, and more have consistently profited from AGOA’s favorable trade provisions. In 2022, Africa’s clothing sales to the United States amounted to $1.4 billion.
These sectors are labor-intensive and significantly dependent on international orders. Under the new tariff system, certain nations now face substantial hikes: Lesotho could see rates rise by 60 percent, Madagascar by 47 percent, and Botswana by 37 percent. Even Kenya, which was once considered a key ally, will have to deal with a 20 percent duty increase.
The outcomes are instant and unyielding. Factories are reducing operations, orders are getting canceled, and households are experiencing the effects. Ethiopia’s situation serves as a clear cautionary tale.
In 2022, when AGOA privileges were withdrawn, apparel exports to the United States plummeted by 42 percent within just a few months, resulting in more than 11,000 job losses.
As the trade winds change unexpectedly, those lacking stability can be carried off course. Similarly, without substantial discussions and reassessment of policies, Lesotho and other nations might face comparable risks.
Farming and winemaking: subtle powers, profound impacts
Agricultural exports play a vital role in Africa’s commerce with the United States. In 2022, South African agricultural shipments to America amounted to $622 million. Approximately 72 percent benefited from zero tariffs due to AGOA provisions. However, currently, all goods face a uniform 30-percent tariff, impacting items such as citrus fruits, grapes, nuts, and prepared foods.
Exports of wine are highly susceptible. In a single year, South Africa sent more than 10 million liters of wine to the United States, placing this market within their top five export destinations. However, a new tariff of 30 percent has made South African wine less competitive compared to those from Chile and Argentina, both subject only to a 10 percent duty.
Africa’s wine industry has strong foundations, yet tariffs are starting to spoil the yield. This change might undo progress made in premium exports and deter lesser producers who were just beginning to access international markets.
Ghana: momentum interrupted
Ghana hasn’t been immune to the tariff surge. The U.S. has levied a 10 percent duty on Ghana’s goods, affecting key areas such as cocoa, clothing, and farming. This move poses challenges for a nation aiming to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and boost industry, particularly during a crucial phase of its export plans.
Ghanaian exporters are currently grappling with increased expenses to enter a crucial market precisely when they were beginning to advance in terms of product quality. Specifically, the cocoa industry, which had aimed to focus more on exporting refined products such as butter and powder, now finds itself at a pricing disadvantage.
Nigeria: The heavy hitter made a quiet impact
As Africa’s biggest economy, Nigeria faces a 14 percent tariff rate which impacts its textile, cocoa product, and cashew exports. Despite oil remaining mostly untouched by this change, these new tariffs pose significant hurdles for Nigeria’s efforts to boost its non-oil exports.
In a country facing challenges with its foreign currency reserves, small interruptions in exports can have disproportionately large impacts. Just as when huge creatures fall, they cause tremors across the land.
When those with great power slow down, even the small players sense the shake-up. Nigerian trade officials have admitted to the effects of the tariffs and are discreetly looking into ways to adjust and broaden their trading options.
Africa’s position within the trading system
Despite the scope of its natural and human resources, Africa remains more of a chessboard than a player in global trade.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was established with the aim of unifying the continent into a single formidable market block. However, after several years, advancements continue to be inconsistent. Issues such as border holdups, technological disparities, visa limitations, and disjointed infrastructural development hinder the realization of full continental integration.
The policymakers who deliver impressive talks about Pan-Africanism frequently create policies that foster division. Leadership devoid of courage is akin to a map lacking pathways; it indicates the destination yet fails to provide direction.
Africa lacks more in bold implementation than in ambition. Ministers must shift from being justifiers of reasons why change can’t happen to advocates driving impactful actions instead. Without seamless intra-continental commerce, it’s only logical that global trade proceeds without much inclusion of Africa.
A concealed entry within the turmoil
Nevertheless, amidst this turmoil exists an opportunity. As international companies search for alternate supply chains, Africa has the potential to emerge as a viable option.
The continent boasts land, resources, and a youthful, vibrant workforce. However, it must also ensure access to energy, maintain stability, improve logistical capabilities, and offer clear policies. What Africa requires is not further proclamations but tangible actions. It’s essential to construct industrial zones, enhance port operations, standardize regulations, and channel investments into skill development.
When others retreat into themselves, Africa should focus on its own capabilities. Slogans alone won’t suffice; what we require are functional systems, infrastructure like roads and railways, clear regulations, and tangible outcomes. The future won’t pause for Africa to complete yet another agreement. It will keep moving forward unless we’re prepared to act swiftly.
In conclusion: embrace the tempest, craft your narrative
Global tariff escalation represents more than just a change in policy; it marks a crucial juncture. Africa must choose between responding with disjointed quietness or uniting through deliberate cohesion.
- The era of discussion is coming to an end. The epoch for construction has arrived!
- Allow others to construct walls. Let Africa come together and create ecosystems instead!
- Allow others to use trade as a weapon. Meanwhile, let Africa focus on industrialization!
- Allow others to withdraw into fear. Let Africa ascend to purpose!
We possess the assets, the workforce, the marketplace, and even the plans. What remains now is to muster the bravery needed for implementation. Prioritizing Africa, progressing with Africa. The future doesn’t stand still; it favors those daring enough to construct it.
>>The author is an internationally renowned thinker, Certified Director, industrial engineer, specialist in supply chain management, and social innovator recognized for their groundbreaking work in fostering industrialization, procurement, and strategic sourcing within emerging countries.
As the inaugural Professor Extraordinaire in Supply Chain Governance and Industrialization in Africa, he has provided guidance to governments, companies, and policy makers, fostering sustainability and development. While serving as the Chairperson of both the Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) and Labadi Beach Hotel, he steered these organizations toward international acclaim for their innovative approaches and high standards of operation. Additionally, he previously held the position of chair at the Public Procurement Authority.
An exceptionally productive writer who has authored more than 90 papers, he is also the originator of NyansaKasa (Words of Wisdom), an intellectually stimulating site reaching over one million people each day. With his forward-thinking guidance, Professor Boateng keeps motivating ethical leadership, creativity, and young people’s development, propelling Africa towards a resilient and equitable tomorrow.
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